Will AI take your job?
Contributed By - Hari Gottipati
Artificial Intelligence, a field of computer science directly mimics tasks that generally require human intelligence, has made tremendous progress in the past few years. Given enough data, massive amounts of processing power, deep learning, a technique modeled on the brain’s architecture, can be trained to do all kinds of things. Some of the neural networks can train themselves to recognize complex patterns such as object detection, translate speech in real time, etc. Usually, human brains can recognize complex patterns, but now machines can think like human brains, thanks to deep learning. Apple's voice assistant Siri, Google Assistant, Microsoft’s Cortana, Facebook’s photo tagging, Amazon’s shopping recommendations and many more are the examples of modern AI fueled by large training data sets and massive processing power. However, this rapid progress also led to concerns about job losses.
Job eliminations according to estimates
AI is the "singular thing that will be larger than all of the human tech revolutions added together, including electricity, the industrial revolution, internet, mobile internet — because AI is pervasive.” - Kai-Fu Lee, founder of venture capital firm Sinovation Ventures and a top voice on tech in China.
AI could affect nearly half of all US jobs, according to a 2016 report from the Obama administration.
According to the CBRE’s Fast Forward 2030 report, “process work, customer work and vast swathes of middle management will simply disappear - 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025 and new jobs will require creative intelligence, social and emotional intelligence and the ability to leverage artificial intelligence”.
McKinsey estimates that 50% of current activities will be automated by 2030. According to McKinsey’s report on the effects of automation on jobs, skills, and wages, 400 million to 800 million people could be displaced by automation in the next 12 years.
AI will take jobs, but it will also create new ones
The job loss panic struck when firms first introduced robots in the 1960s and the revolution of PCs in 1980. Each time, automation ultimately created more jobs than destroyed. For example, we will need some sort of air traffic controllers to control the driverless vehicles on the road. This job would not have existed in a world without AI. Also, keep in mind that some jobs cannot be replaced by AI and in some cases humans can compete with robots.
Price Waterhouse Coopers’ Global Artificial Intelligence study, 2018 found that by 2030, AI will contribute $15.7 trillion to the global economy (more than the current output of China and India combined) and boosts GDP by 26%. “The greatest economic gains from AI will be in China (26% boost to GDP in 2030) and North America (14.5% boost), equivalent to a total of $10.7 trillion and accounting for almost 70% of the global economic impact”, the report highlights. It also highlights that “adoption of ‘no-human-in-the-loop’ technologies will mean that some posts will inevitably become redundant, but others will be created by the shifts in productivity and consumer demand emanating from AI, and through the value chain of AI itself.”
Gartner in December 2017 predicted that AI will create 500,000 jobs by 2020 and 2 million jobs by 2025.
What jobs will be automated in the future
AI is going to impact pretty much every sector and here are some that are noteworthy:
Insurance Industry - In Japan, Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance is planning to slash nearly 30 percent of its medical insurance claims reps with an AI system powered by IBM’s Watson Explore.
Banks - First, ATMs reduced teller jobs and mobile applications reduced those jobs further. Now automation can open accounts, process loans at a fraction of seconds and can completely eliminate teller jobs. By eliminating teller jobs, banks can turn the investments into new products or open new branches. Either new products or new branches can open a door for new jobs.
Stock and Financial Analysts - Analysts can spot a trend or anticipate the future before it happened, but the AI-powered analysis can predict the future more accurately and faster than a human. Nearly 30% of financial sector jobs will be taken by AI in the next 5 to 10 years, according to a Citigroup report.
Taxi and Truck Drivers - Traditional taxi drivers are impacted by Uber and Lyft, but in the future, all three will see their jobs hit by autonomous vehicles. The autonomous vehicles are going to be on a road faster than you could think of. Otto, acquired by Uber, is already testing autonomous trucks.
Manufacturing and Construction workers - nearly all human workforce will be replaced by advanced robots in the near future. Foxconn, a supplier in China for Apple and Samsung, has reportedly replaced 60,000 factory workers with robots.
Lawyers - According to Deloitte, 39% of jobs in the legal sector will be automated in the next 10 years.
Journalists - In 10 years, I may not be writing these articles, instead, AI could write. It’s possible that a future content site could exist without human writers. Associated Press is already using AI to write quarterly earnings reports.
Cooks and Servers - Food preparation robots could eliminate cook jobs and tabletop ordering software agents could take server jobs. California based Caliburger is already using burger robots manufactured by Miso Robotics and Zume pizza is using robots to cook pizzas.